![]() The revised proposal was based on further analysis and consultations following Committee discussion of a proposal at the January 2016 meeting. Participants considered a revised proposal from the subcommittee on communications to add to the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) a number of charts (sometimes called fan charts) that would illustrate the uncertainty that attends participants' macroeconomic projections. Here's the full text of the minutes: Illustration of Uncertainty in the Summary of Economic Projections ![]() As this was considered last year, the Fed worried that the charts might confuse people. The minutes announced that Fed staffers' quarterly economic projections will include fan charts showing the ranges of possibilities around its central forecasts. "It is clear that policymakers have not reached a consensus on the particulars of the Fed's reinvestment policy at this point," said Deutsche Bank economists in a note on Tuesday. Economists at BNP Paribas forecast that the Fed will start trimming its balance sheet once rates are in the 1%-1.5% range the benchmark fed funds rate is in a range of 0.50%-0.75%. Yellen was similarly vague during congressional testimony on Valentine's Day, saying the Fed would gradually unwind its balance sheet when the process of normalizing rates is well underway. "The shrinking of the balance sheet may start in the not too distant future," said Neel Kashkari, the Minneapolis Fed president, on Tuesday. ![]() After the recession, the Fed launched bond-buying programs to help keep interest rates low and expanded its holdings to about $4.5 trillion as a result. There's renewed interest in how the Fed plans to shrink its balance sheet. ![]() It often indicates a user profile.Īccording to Bloomberg, futures traders priced in a 38% chance of a rate increase at the March 14-15 meeting, and a 62.7% chance of one at the gathering in June after the minutes crossed. Account icon An icon in the shape of a person's head and shoulders. ![]()
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